Why are Kansas and Michigan State #1 seeds?

The bulk of brackets on the Bracket Matrix have Michigan State as a #2 (or even a #3) along with Kansas, with two of Wichita State, Florida, or Villanova picking up #1 seeds.  So why do I have Michigan State and Kansas ranked higher?  The issue here is the vast disparity in schedule strength between these five teams.  Kansas has played an absolutely brutal schedule this year, with 19 games against the RPI top 100 at the moment, 13 of which are against the RPI top 50.  Yes, they have 5 losses; that makes them 7-5 against the RPI top 30, with the worst of those being at Colorado, a solid tournament team.  They have road wins at Iowa State and Oklahoma and a neutral site win over Duke.

Follow over the jump for (way too much) more:


Here are records of other teams against the RPI top 30:

Kansas: 7-5.
Villanova: 1-2 (Yes, they beat Kansas, but that is negated by their 28-point home loss to Creighton.)
Florida: 2-1 (Yes, they beat Kansas as well, but they have an additional loss outside the top 30 to UConn)
Michigan State: 4-1, with two losses outside the top 50
Wichita State: 1-0 (at Saint Louis)

Against the rest of the top 100, the records are:
Kansas: 7-0
Villanova: 9-0
Florida: 7-1
Michigan State: 6-2
Wichita State: 6-0

Note: all RPI numbers are from realtimerpi.com. I actually prefer rpiforecast.com, and the numbers are slightly different between the two, but realtimerpi has the team schedules in a more easily visible format.

When I compare the schedules of, say, Kansas and Wichita State, here's what I see: Kansas only played three teams outside the top 100 this year.  Wichita State has 16.  A #1 seed should beat all of those teams anyway, so those wins aren't worth much to me.  Wichita State did a good job scheduling teams in the RPI 100-200 range that they could beat without taking a hit to their RPI, and they are still only 6th in that metric even without a loss.  That is how weak their schedule is.  They could have beefed up their out-of-conference schedule, but instead they played teams like Tulsa and DePaul.  More than anything, though, they haven't proven that they deserve a #1 seed simply because they haven't beaten anyone that would be considered a top 4 seed.  I also don't think Kansas should get punished for playing Florida and Villanova instead of William & Mary or Oral Roberts.  I'm fine with Wichita State as a #2, but they need a good win (which they can't get) or a lot of help to move up.

Villanova played a tougher schedule than Wichita State, but lost two of their three games against top competition, one badly (granted, if Creighton had shot only 40% from 3 in that game it might have gone down to the wire).  Even accounting for the head-to-head, Kansas has the stronger resume.  Moreover, the committee has shown in the past that is doesn't care about head-to-head, as there have been plenty of cases where Team A sweeps Team B, and maybe has a higher RPI too, but Team B still makes the tournament over team A due to better big wins and fewer bad losses.

How about Kansas vs. Florida?  For the sake of argument let's bump one of Florida's losses, UConn, into the top 30.  That makes their records against teams 31-100 both 7-0.  Against the top 30 + UConn, Kansas is 7-5, Florida is 2-2.  Kansas has a better winning percentage, far more overall games, and is 3-2 against the RPI top 10, with only one of those games at home.  In contrast, Florida did beat Kansas (at Florida), but their other top 30 win was #30 Memphis, and their loss to Wisconsin is looking less impressive by the week.  That said, this is a very close comparison.  If both teams hold serve through next weekend, including a Florida win at Kentucky, these teams could get switched.

Of the three teams above that I rated #2, I think Florida has the best resume.  Let's compare them to my lowest #1 seed, Michigan State.
Best wins by RPI, with the number representing the team RPI:

Michigan State	Florida
vs. 13. Kentucky	1. Kansas
17. Ohio State	vs. 30. Memphis
vs. 22 Oklahoma	40. Florida St.
at 25. Texas	43. Richmond
at 36. Iowa	46. Missouri
37. Minnesota	47. Tennessee
at 69. Indiana	at 88. Arkansas
69. Indiana	89. Middle Tennessee St.
at 75. Illinois	at 94. Alabama

Michigan State's wins are, on average, against better competition. Florida beat one top team (Kansas), one average tournament team (Memphis), and four bubble teams, none of which were on the road. Michigan State doesn't have a top ten win, but it has five wins against teams better than Memphis, two on the road and two at neutral sites. I think this outweighs the recent loss to Georgetown, especially since Tom Izzo has made it clear that he is currently fielding a team of patients in a M*A*S*H unit. (All Michigan fans reading this post just rolled their eyes in exasperation.) It's close, but I'm still giving it to Michigan State. Michigan State goes to the Kohl Center to face Wisconsin, and that game should illuminate this comparison. If the Spartans lose, they drop to #2; otherwise, I am confident that they would be a #1.