Seeding update for February 19

First the seed bands, then some analysis and explanation after the jump.

Seed bands for February 19

#1: Syracuse, Florida, Arizona, Wichita St.
#2: Kansas, Duke, Villanova, San Diego State
#3: Wisconsin, Iowa St., Creighton, Michigan State 
#4: Cincinnati, Michigan, Saint Louis, Iowa
#5: Virginia, UCLA, Kentucky, Texas
#6: Ohio State, Louisville, Connecticut, Oklahoma
#7: Pittsburgh, Memphis, Arizona St., North Carolina
#8: Kansas St., Massachusetts, Gonzaga, New Mexico
#9:  George Washington, VCU, Colorado, Stanford
#10:  Southern Methodist, California, Minnesota, Xavier
#11: Baylor, Oklahoma State, St. Joseph's, Missouri*, Richmond*
#12:  Tennessee*, Providence*, Louisiana Tech, Green Bay, Toledo
#13: Belmont, North Dakota St., Mercer, Stephen F. Austin
#14:  Delaware, Iona, Vermont, Georgia State
#15:  Boston U, UC Irvine, North Carolina Central, Robert Morris
#16: Utah Valley, Weber State, Yale*, Davidson*, Coastal Carolina*, Alabama State*

* Denotes teams in first-round (play-in) games

Seed analysis after the jump.


Some big results in the last couple days really shook up the upper part of the seeding bands.

• Villanova's thrashing at the hands of Creighton lends a lot of credence to the first blowout, which heretofore could have been viewed as fluky. As a result, Creighton gets a big bump and Villanova's shot at a #1 seed is vastly diminished. They really need to run the table just to keep a #2, because any loss should drop them. The Wildcats are 4-3 against the RPI top 50; basically, their resume looks a lot like Saint Louis except for the win over Kansas.
• Michigan State's shocking loss to Nebraska at home really hurts them as well. They have now lost, at least for the time being, the chance to be the #2 seed in the midwest region and get a good draw into a fairly close site in Indianapolis. They may also lose out on the reasonably close pod location of Milwaukee, and could get sent to a place like San Antonio or Spokane instead if they can't get revenge on Michigan this Sunday.
• That game also makes Nebraska a fringe bubble team. If you don't believe me, we can compare the Huskers to a Joe Lunardi favorite, BYU. The Huskers have the same number of losses, but much better wins and much better losses. I don't think either are tournament teams, but Nebraska is way closer.  Whether Nebraska is an NCAA team or not, Tim Miles deserves consideration for at least B1G coach of the year, and national mention as well. Their program looked moribund last year, and lost a lot of seniors. Suddenly, they are beating Michigan State and Ohio State, and taking Michigan down to the wire at home. If they can go 5-1 down the stretch in the Big Ten, and win their first-round B1G tournament game, they should get in.  Impressive year for Miles and Nebraska.  
• While they are only fighting for third in the B1G, Wisconsin could grab the best seed of the group. Wisconsin and Michigan State have the same record now at 21-5, but Wisconsin beat Michigan State, as well as Florida, Saint Louis, Virginia, and Michigan; all are at least contenders for a top 4 seed,and include one of the best few teams in the country. Michigan State's best wins are Kentucky, Texas, Iowa, Oklahoma, and Ohio State. Wisconsin just has better wins, but also worse losses. At the moment, I give a very slight edge to Wisconsin, but a lot will come down to Sunday's Michigan-MSU showdown.