February 12 seeding update

STwo big changes yesterday further serve to muddle the situation around the #3 seed level.

• San Diego State's loss to Wyoming really hurts, because their schedule is so weak.  Prior to that game, they had played only 7 games against the RPI top 100 and only 3 in the top 50, so seeding them was difficult anyway, and of course they lost as soon as I bumped them to a #2.  Still, their only other loss is to Arizona, and they have wins over Kansas and Creighton, so there is more evidence of ability to beat good teams on their resume than on, say, Wichita State's.  I'm leaving them as a low #3 for now, but they deserve to stay just ahead of Creighton based on better top-end wins and only one bad loss (plus the head-to-head win).  
• Michigan's road win over Ohio State jumps them to the #3 seed line again, ahead of Iowa.  Michigan and Iowa split their games, but in looking at their records against the rest of the B1G, Iowa is 2-4 against the teams thought to be contenders (Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Ohio State), while Michigan is 4-1, and have beaten all four other contenders, three on the road.  Iowa's losses are to better teams, but Michigan beat better teams, so I give them the edge.  Wisconsin stays ahead of both due to their great OOC performance.  Ohio State holds on to a #5 seed largely because, with four other B1G teams in the bottom halves of brackets, someone has to get bumped, and they would be the easiest to move. Also they have a better road win than anything Oklahoma has.

Seed bands for February 12: 

#1: Arizona, Syracuse, Florida, Wichita St.
#2: Villanova, Kansas, Michigan St., Duke
#3: Wisconsin, Iowa St., Michigan, San Diego State
#4: Iowa, Cincinnati, Creighton, Texas
#5: Virginia, Kentucky, Louisville, Ohio State 
#6: Oklahoma, Pittsburgh, UCLA, Saint Louis
#7: Massachusetts, Memphis, Connecticut, Kansas St.
#8: North Carolina, George Washington, Gonzaga, VCU
#9:  New Mexico, Oklahoma St., Colorado, Southern Methodist
#10: California, Arizona St., Xavier, Minnesota
#11: Stanford, Tennessee, Southern Miss., Richmond
#12: St. Joseph's*, Oregon*,  Georgetown*, LSU*, Toledo, North Dakota St.
#13: Belmont, Mercer, Delaware, Georgia State
#14: Green Bay, Stephen F. Austin, Vermont, Iona

#15:  UC Irvine, American, North Carolina Central, Utah Valley
#16: Robert Morris, Weber State, Yale*, Davidson*, Southern*, Coastal Carolina*

* Denotes teams in first-round (play-in) games