Seed update for February 28

After a crazy night of upsets in the AP top 25, here is the seed update going into Friday's action:

Seed bands for February 28

#1: Arizona, Florida, Syracuse, Wichita St.
#2: Kansas, Wisconsin, Duke, Villanova
#3: Iowa State, Michigan, Creighton, Michigan State
#4: Virginia, Cincinnati, San Diego State, Louisville
#5: Texas, North Carolina, Kentucky, Saint Louis  
#6: Massachusetts, UCLA, Oklahoma, New Mexico
#7: Ohio State, Kansas State, Iowa, Connecticut
#8: Arizona State, Stanford, George Washington, VCU
#9:  Colorado, Memphis, Pittsburgh, Southern Methodist
#10: Baylor, California, Saint Joseph's, Gonzaga
#11: Oregon, Xavier, Minnesota, Oklahoma State*, Arkansas*
#12:  Missouri*, St. John's*, Green Bay, Harvard, Southern Miss
#13: North Dakota State, Belmont, Stephen F. Austin, Iona
#14:  Western Michigan, Vermont, Mercer, Delaware
#15:  UC Irvine, Georgia State, Boston U, North Carolina Central
#16: Davidson, Robert Morris, Utah Valley*, High Point*, Weber State*, Alabama State*

* Denotes teams in first-round (play-in) games

Seed update for February 24

Seed bands for February 24

#1: Arizona, Florida, Syracuse, Wichita St.
#2: Kansas, Wisconsin, Duke, Villanova
#3: Iowa State, Michigan, Creighton, Cincinnati
#4: Saint Louis, Michigan State, San Diego State, Virginia 
#5: Kentucky, Louisville, Iowa, Ohio State
#6: UCLA, Texas, Oklahoma, North Carolina
#7: Massachusetts, New Mexico, Connecticut, Memphis 
#8: Kansas State, Stanford, Colorado, Arizona State
#9:  VCU, George Washington, Pittsburgh, Southern Methodist
#10: Baylor, California, Gonzaga, Saint Joseph's
#11: St. John's, Missouri, Oregon, Xavier*, Oklahoma State*
#12:  Minnesota*, Richmond*, Green Bay, Toledo, Harvard
#13: North Dakota State, Belmont, Middle Tennessee, New Mexico State
#14:  Stephen F. Austin, Mercer, Iona, Vermont
#15:  UC Santa Barbara, Delaware, Georgia State, Boston U
#16: North Carolina Central, Davidson, Robert Morris*, Weber State*, Virginia Military*, Alabama State*

 

* Denotes teams in first-round (play-in) games

Seeding update for February 23

Seed bands for February 23

#1: Arizona, Florida, Syracuse, Wichita St.
#2: Kansas, Wisconsin, Duke, Villanova
#3: Iowa State, Creighton, Michigan State, Michigan
#4: Cincinnati,  San Diego State, Saint Louis, Virginia 
#5: Kentucky, Louisville, Iowa, Ohio State
#6: UCLA, Texas, Oklahoma, North Carolina
#7: Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Mexico, Memphis 
#8:  Pittsburgh, Arizona State, Kansas State, Stanford
#9:  Colorado, VCU, George Washington, Baylor
#10: California, Southern Methodist, Gonzaga, Saint Joseph's
#11: St. John's, Missouri, Oregon, Xavier*, Oklahoma State*
#12:  Minnesota*, Richmond*, Green Bay, Toledo, North Dakota State
#13: Belmont, Middle Tennessee, Stephen F. Austin, New Mexico State
#14:  Mercer, Delaware, Iona, Vermont
#15:  Georgia State, Boston U, UC Irvine, North Carolina Central,
#16: Robert Morris, Davidson, Yale*, Weber State*, Virginia Military*, Alabama State*

* Denotes teams in first-round (play-in) games

You might be surprised to see Wisconsin this high on the list, but they just put together a stretch where they beat Michigan State and Minnesota at home, then Michigan and Iowa on the road.  This, when paired with out of conference wins over Florida, Virginia, and Saint Louis, and they have earned the #2 seed.  If you put their resume side-by-side with Duke's, they are almost the same, except for Wisconsin beating more top 50 teams, and doing so away from home.  

Full Bracket for February 22

Here is Saturday's full bracket update.  In the Final Four, the West would be matched against the Midwest, and the South against the East.  Like that matters.

East (New York City)

Games played in Buffalo, Thurs/Sat.
1. Syracuse
16. Yale/Alabama State

8. Kansas State
9. VCU

Games played in San Diego, Fri/Sun.
5. Kentucky
12. Green Bay

4. UCLA
13. Belmont

Games played in Raleigh, Fri/Sun.
6. Louisville
11. St. John's/Oregon

3. Michigan State
14. Mercer

Games played in Buffalo, Thurs/Sat
7. Pittsburgh
10. Baylor

2. Villanova
15. Boston U

West (Anaheim)

Games played in San Diego, Fri/Sun.
1. Arizona
16. Utah Valley

8. New Mexico
9. Gonzaga

Games played in Spokane, Thurs/Sat.
5. Virginia
12. North Dakota State

4. Iowa
13. Middle Tennessee

Games played in San Antonio, Fri/Sun.
6. Ohio State
11. Saint Joseph's

3. Creighton
14. Iona

Games played in Spokane, Thurs/Sat.
7. Oklahoma
10. Southern Methodist

2. San Diego State
15. UC Irvine

South (Memphis)

Games played in Orlando, Thurs/Sat.
1. Florida
16. Davidson

8. Colorado
9. George Washington

Games played in San Antonio, Fri/Sun.
5. Saint Louis
12. Toledo

4. Michigan
13. Delaware

Games played in Raleigh, Fri/Sun.
6. Connecticut
11. Minnesota

3. Duke
14. Vermont

Games played in St. Louis, Fri/Sun.
7. Arizona State
10. Xavier

2. Kansas
15. Robert Morris

Midwest (Indianapolis)

Games played in St. Louis, Fri/Sun.
1. Wichita State
16. Weber State/Coastal Carolina

8. Massachusetts
9. Stanford

Games played in Orlando, Thurs/Sat
5. Texas
12. Richmond/Tennessee

4. Cincinnati
13. Stephen F. Austin

Games played in Milwaukee, Thurs/Sat.
6. North Carolina
11. Missouri

3. Iowa State
14. Georgia State

Games played in Milwaukee, Thurs/Sat.
7. Memphis
10. California

2. Wisconsin
15. North Carolina Central

Bracketing notes:
There were two seed bumps:

• Arizona State was bumped up to a #7 because there would have been 5 Pac-12 teams in the top halves of regions.  Massachusetts was bumped down as a result.
• Oregon was swapped with Tennessee due to the long travel for the play-in game and the desire not to have them play on Tuesday in Dayton then Thursday in Orlando.  Richmond and Tennessee are more able to handle the quick turnaround.

February 22 seeding update

Seed bands for February 22

#1: Arizona, Florida, Syracuse, Wichita St.
#2: Kansas, Villanova, San Diego State, Wisconsin
#3: Duke, Iowa State, Creighton, Michigan State 
#4: Cincinnati, Michigan, Iowa, UCLA
#5: Virginia, Saint Louis, Kentucky, Texas
#6: Ohio State, Louisville, North Carolina, Connecticut
#7: Oklahoma, Pittsburgh, Massachusetts, Memphis
#8:  Kansas State, Arizona State, New Mexico, Colorado
#9:  George Washington, Gonzaga, Stanford, VCU
#10: Xavier, Baylor, California, Southern Methodist
#11: Minnesota, Saint Joseph's, Missouri, St. John's*, Tennessee*
#12:  Richmond*, Oregon*, Green Bay, Toledo, North Dakota State
#13: Belmont, Middle Tennessee, Stephen F. Austin, Delaware
#14:  Mercer, Iona, Vermont, Georgia State
#15:  Boston U, UC Irvine, North Carolina Central, Robert Morris
#16: Utah Valley, Davidson, Yale*, Weber State*, Coastal Carolina*, Alabama State*

* Denotes teams in first-round (play-in) games

February 20 seeding update

Seed bands for February 20

#1: Arizona, Florida, Syracuse, Wichita St.
#2: Kansas, Duke, Villanova, San Diego State
#3: Wisconsin, Iowa State, Creighton, Michigan State 
#4: Cincinnati, Michigan, Iowa, UCLA
#5: Virginia, Saint Louis, Kentucky, Texas
#6: Ohio State, Louisville, Connecticut, Oklahoma
#7: Pittsburgh, Memphis, North Carolina, Kansas State
#8:  Massachusetts, Arizona State, Gonzaga, New Mexico
#9:  Colorado, George Washington, VCU, Stanford
#10:  Southern Methodist, Xavier, Baylor, California
#11: Minnesota, Saint Joseph's, Missouri, Oklahoma State*, Richmond*
#12:  Tennessee*, St. John's*, Louisiana Tech, Green Bay, Toledo
#13: Belmont, North Dakota St., Mercer, Stephen F. Austin
#14:  Delaware, Iona, Vermont, Georgia State
#15:  Boston U, UC Irvine, North Carolina Central, Robert Morris
#16: Utah Valley, Weber State, Yale*, Davidson*, Coastal Carolina*, Alabama State*

* Denotes teams in first-round (play-in) games

Seed analysis after the jump.

Seeding update for February 19

First the seed bands, then some analysis and explanation after the jump.

Seed bands for February 19

#1: Syracuse, Florida, Arizona, Wichita St.
#2: Kansas, Duke, Villanova, San Diego State
#3: Wisconsin, Iowa St., Creighton, Michigan State 
#4: Cincinnati, Michigan, Saint Louis, Iowa
#5: Virginia, UCLA, Kentucky, Texas
#6: Ohio State, Louisville, Connecticut, Oklahoma
#7: Pittsburgh, Memphis, Arizona St., North Carolina
#8: Kansas St., Massachusetts, Gonzaga, New Mexico
#9:  George Washington, VCU, Colorado, Stanford
#10:  Southern Methodist, California, Minnesota, Xavier
#11: Baylor, Oklahoma State, St. Joseph's, Missouri*, Richmond*
#12:  Tennessee*, Providence*, Louisiana Tech, Green Bay, Toledo
#13: Belmont, North Dakota St., Mercer, Stephen F. Austin
#14:  Delaware, Iona, Vermont, Georgia State
#15:  Boston U, UC Irvine, North Carolina Central, Robert Morris
#16: Utah Valley, Weber State, Yale*, Davidson*, Coastal Carolina*, Alabama State*

* Denotes teams in first-round (play-in) games

Seed analysis after the jump.

February 16 seeding update

I hope to start publishing some side-by-side comparisons to explain some of the ways in which my predictions deviate from the norm.  I'll start by looking at Saint Louis, who finally got a pretty good win over VCU, and so I grudgingly bumped them to a #5.  I'll look at the Billikens, whom I have been seeding below most prognosticators, in comparison with Iowa, whom I have higher than many.

In the meantime, here are today's updates. 

Seed bands for February 16:

#1: Syracuse, Florida, Arizona, Wichita St.
#2: Villanova, Kansas, Michigan St., Duke
#3: Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa St., San Diego State
#4: Iowa, Cincinnati, Creighton, Texas
#5: Virginia, Kentucky, Louisville, Saint Louis
#6: UCLA, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Connecticut
#7: North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Memphis, Gonzaga
#8: Massachusetts, Kansas State, New Mexico, Arizona St.,
#9:  VCU, George Washington, Colorado, Southern Methodist
#10: California, Minnesota, Oklahoma State, Stanford
#11:  Xavier, Richmond, Missouri, St. Joseph's*, Tennessee*
#12:  Georgetown*, Baylor*, Louisiana Tech, North Dakota St., Green Bay
#13: Belmont, Toledo, Mercer, Stephen F. Austin
#14:  Georgia State, Delaware, Vermont, Boston U
#15:  Iona, UC Irvine, North Carolina Central, Robert Morris
#16: Utah Valley, Weber State, Yale*, Davidson*, Southern*, Coastal Carolina*


* Denotes teams in first-round (play-in) games

February 15 seeding update

Changes since Thursday afternoon:

• Mercifully, the only bubble team that played was Missouri, and they eked out a 1 point win over Arkansas, so they stay in the field.  
• Southern Miss was lit up by UAB, and so drops to a #12.  I don't like their profile much; their best wins are over fellow automatic qualifiers North Dakota State and Georgia State, and it's hard to argue that with three bad losses they have a better resume than any at-large team. 
• UCSB takes back the top spot in its conference from UC Irvine.  
• Arizona's loss to Arizona State doesn't affect them...yet.  They are still a #1 seed in the West, still play Weber State in the round of 64.  At best it could affect who the #4 seed in their region is.  However, another loss does put them in some danger, and two would probably drop them to a #2.
• Arizona State, of course, is on the rise.
• I also did some minor shuffling of the autobid schools.  It's tempting to just list them by RPI, but I wanted to go a little more in-depth than that.
• I considered flipping Texas and Virginia, but I looked again at their profiles, and Texas just has better wins.  Virginia may be 11-1 in the ACC, but their conference schedule has included most of the dregs of that conference, and they are only 1-1 against the other top teams in the conference (lost at Duke, won at Pitt).  They have nothing to compete with Texas' win over Kansas.

Enjoy Saturday's action!

Seed bands for February 15:

#1: Syracuse, Arizona, Florida, Wichita St.
#2: Villanova, Kansas, Michigan St., Duke
#3: Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa St., San Diego State
#4: Iowa, Cincinnati, Creighton, Texas
#5: Virginia, Kentucky, Louisville, Ohio State
#6: Pittsburgh, UCLA, Saint Louis, Oklahoma
#7: Memphis, Connecticut, Kansas St., North Carolina
#8: VCU, Gonzaga, New Mexico, Arizona St.
#9:  Massachusetts, George Washington, Colorado, Southern Methodist
#10: Oklahoma State, California, Xavier, Minnesota
#11: Tennessee, Richmond, Stanford, St. Joseph's*, Oregon*
#12:  Georgetown*, Missouri*, Toledo, Southern Miss., North Dakota St.
#13: Belmont, Green Bay, Mercer, Georgia State
#14:  Stephen F. Austin, Delaware, Vermont, UC Santa Barbara 

#15:  Iona, American, North Carolina Central, Robert Morris
#16: Utah Valley, Weber State, Yale*, Davidson*, Southern*, Coastal Carolina*

* Denotes teams in first-round (play-in) games

February 13 seeding update

A few changes from yesterday:

• I shifted Michigan to the top of the #3 seeds.  If you look at their games against the RPI top 50, 7 were road games, 1 neutral, and only 2 home.  Iowa State, though they beat Michigan at home, has only one road win against a somewhat solid tournament team, Oklahoma State, who is currently doing their best to get to the NIT.  Wisconsin and Michigan have similar profiles right down to their worst losses, but Michigan's road success plus their win at the Kohl Center gives Michigan the edge here (at least until Sunday's rematch).
• Oklahoma drops with a bad loss to Texas Tech
• LSU is out, again, with a loss to Texas A&M.
• GW slips with a loss to VCU.
• Stanford is now just above the play-in spot after losing to Washington.
• UMass takes a big hit with a bad loss to George Mason.
• The bottom of the bubble is just awful.  I still don't like BYU's bad losses; Florida State and LSU keep losing; West Virginia has ten losses and two of them are bad ones. I'd put Harvard in as an at-large, but if they win out they get the autobid, and if they lose again they won't get the at-large anyway. I'm giving the spot to Missouri, but I don't feel good about it.

Seed bands for February 13:

#1: Arizona, Syracuse, Florida, Wichita St.
#2: Villanova, Kansas, Michigan St., Duke
#3: Wisconsin, Iowa St., Michigan, San Diego State
#4: Iowa, Cincinnati, Creighton, Texas
#5: Virginia, Kentucky, Louisville, Ohio State
#6: Pittsburgh, UCLA, Saint Louis, Oklahoma
#7: Memphis, Connecticut, Kansas St., North Carolina
#8: VCU, Gonzaga, New Mexico, Massachusetts
#9:   George Washington, Colorado, Southern Methodist, Oklahoma State
#10: California, Arizona St., Xavier, Minnesota
#11: Tennessee, Southern Miss., Richmond, Stanford
#12: St. Joseph's*, Oregon*,  Georgetown*, Missouri*, Toledo, North Dakota St.
#13: Belmont, Mercer, Delaware, Georgia State
#14: Green Bay, Stephen F. Austin, Vermont, Iona

#15:  UC Irvine, American, North Carolina Central, Utah Valley
#16: Robert Morris, Weber State, Yale*, Davidson*, Southern*, Coastal Carolina*

* Denotes teams in first-round (play-in) games

February 12 seeding update

STwo big changes yesterday further serve to muddle the situation around the #3 seed level.

• San Diego State's loss to Wyoming really hurts, because their schedule is so weak.  Prior to that game, they had played only 7 games against the RPI top 100 and only 3 in the top 50, so seeding them was difficult anyway, and of course they lost as soon as I bumped them to a #2.  Still, their only other loss is to Arizona, and they have wins over Kansas and Creighton, so there is more evidence of ability to beat good teams on their resume than on, say, Wichita State's.  I'm leaving them as a low #3 for now, but they deserve to stay just ahead of Creighton based on better top-end wins and only one bad loss (plus the head-to-head win).  
• Michigan's road win over Ohio State jumps them to the #3 seed line again, ahead of Iowa.  Michigan and Iowa split their games, but in looking at their records against the rest of the B1G, Iowa is 2-4 against the teams thought to be contenders (Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Ohio State), while Michigan is 4-1, and have beaten all four other contenders, three on the road.  Iowa's losses are to better teams, but Michigan beat better teams, so I give them the edge.  Wisconsin stays ahead of both due to their great OOC performance.  Ohio State holds on to a #5 seed largely because, with four other B1G teams in the bottom halves of brackets, someone has to get bumped, and they would be the easiest to move. Also they have a better road win than anything Oklahoma has.

Seed bands for February 12: 

#1: Arizona, Syracuse, Florida, Wichita St.
#2: Villanova, Kansas, Michigan St., Duke
#3: Wisconsin, Iowa St., Michigan, San Diego State
#4: Iowa, Cincinnati, Creighton, Texas
#5: Virginia, Kentucky, Louisville, Ohio State 
#6: Oklahoma, Pittsburgh, UCLA, Saint Louis
#7: Massachusetts, Memphis, Connecticut, Kansas St.
#8: North Carolina, George Washington, Gonzaga, VCU
#9:  New Mexico, Oklahoma St., Colorado, Southern Methodist
#10: California, Arizona St., Xavier, Minnesota
#11: Stanford, Tennessee, Southern Miss., Richmond
#12: St. Joseph's*, Oregon*,  Georgetown*, LSU*, Toledo, North Dakota St.
#13: Belmont, Mercer, Delaware, Georgia State
#14: Green Bay, Stephen F. Austin, Vermont, Iona

#15:  UC Irvine, American, North Carolina Central, Utah Valley
#16: Robert Morris, Weber State, Yale*, Davidson*, Southern*, Coastal Carolina*

* Denotes teams in first-round (play-in) games