Seeding update, March 15 (4 pm EDT)

Seeding update, March 15 (4 pm EDT)

#1: Florida, Arizona, Wichita St., Michigan
#2: Wisconsin, Villanova, Duke, Kansas
#3: Virginia, Iowa State, Creighton, Syracuse
#4: Louisville, San Diego State, Cincinnati, Connecticut
#5: Michigan State, Oklahoma, Ohio State, UCLA
#6: Texas, North Carolina, VCU, Baylor
#7: New Mexico, Saint Louis, Kentucky, Massachusetts
#8: Memphis, George Washington, Oregon, Oklahoma State
#9: Kansas State, Colorado, Gonzaga, Pittsburgh
#10: Iowa, Stanford, Arizona State, St. Joseph's
#11: Nebraska, Tennessee, Xavier, Dayton*, Southern Methodist*
#12: Providence*, Southern Miss*, Harvard, Toledo, North Dakota State
#13: Stephen F. Austin, Delaware, Manhattan, Tulsa
#14: New Mexico State, Mercer, Eastern Kentucky, Georgia State
#15: North Carolina Central, American, Milwaukee, Wofford
#16: Weber State, Coastal Carolina, Albany*, Mount St. Mary's*, Texas Southern*, Cal State Northridge*

* Denotes teams in first-round (play-in) games
Bold: Automatic bid

Additional thoughts after the jump


I'm going back and forth on the last at-large spot between Brigham Young, Southern Miss, and Minnesota.  Southern Miss has the record (and regular-season conference championship), but their best win is over North Dakota State.  Minnesota has an outstanding strength of schedule, and has wins over Ohio State and Wisconsin, but they are only 2-8 against the top 50.  BYU...well, everyone seems to have BYU in their bracket.  

Of the three teams, BYU has the most bad losses (4 outside the top 100, and I think their strength of schedule was inflated by playing teams that were bad but not awful (the RPI 150-200 range): teams an NCAA team should certainly beat, but who don't really hurt the RPI and SOS numbers the way a RPI 300 team would. I also think the committee will hesitate to put them in the field after one of their best players tore his ACL.  So I'm removing BYU from consideration.

I went with Southern Miss yesterday because I remember the committee giving surprising bids to mid-majors like George Mason, VCU, and Iona in the past.  I'm sticking with it for the moment, but I may change my mind tomorrow.  I certainly wouldn't mind someone coming in and stealing a bid (like NC State, for example) just to make this decision easier.