Final NCAA bracket

Here is my final full bracket.  In the Final Four, the West would be matched against the Midwest, and the South against the East.  Florida is the #1 overall seed.

East (New York City)

Games played in Milwaukee, Thurs/Sat.
1. Michigan
16. Albany/Mount St. Mary's

8. George Washington
9. Pittsburgh

Games played in San Diego, Fri/Sun.
5. Connecticut
12. Stephen F. Austin

4. UCLA
13. Delaware

Games played in Raleigh, Fri/Sun.
6. Texas
11. Arizona State

3. Duke
14. Louisiana-Lafayette

Games played in Buffalo, Thurs/Sat
7. Massachusetts
10. Stanford

2. Villanova
15. Wofford

West (Anaheim)

Games played in San Diego, Fri/Sun.
1. Arizona
16. Weber State

8. Oklahoma State
9. Gonzaga

Games played in Spokane, Thurs/Sat.
5. San Diego State
12. North Dakota State

4. Cincinnati
13. Manhattan

Games played in Buffalo, Thurs/Sat.
6. Virginia Commonwealth
11. Tennessee

3. Syracuse
14. Mercer

Games played in Milwaukee, Thurs/Sat.
7. Baylor
10. Providence

2. Wisconsin
15. North Carolina Central

South (Memphis)

Games played in Orlando, Thurs/Sat.
1. Florida
16. Coastal Carolina

8. Oregon
9. Kansas State

Games played in Spokane, Thurs/Sat.
5. Ohio State
12. Harvard

4. Creighton
13. Western Michigan

Games played in San Antonio, Fri/Sun.
6. New Mexico
11. Dayton/Xavier

3. Iowa State
14. New Mexico State

Games played in Raleigh, Fri/Sun.
7. Saint Louis
10. Iowa

2. Virginia
15. American

Midwest (Indianapolis)

Games played in St. Louis, Fri/Sun.
1. Wichita State
16. Texas Southern/Cal Poly

8. Memphis
9. Colorado

Games played in San Antonio, Thurs/Sat
5. Oklahoma
12. Southern Methodist/Minnesota

4. Michigan State
13. Tulsa

Games played in Orlando, Thurs/Sat.
6. North Carolina
11. Nebraska

3. Louisville
14. Eastern Kentucky

Games played in St. Louis, Fri/Sun.
7. Kentucky
10. St. Joseph's

2. Kansas
15. Milwaukee

Seeding update for March 16

Seeding update for March 16

#1: Florida, Wichita St., Arizona, Michigan
#2: Villanova, Duke, Kansas,  Iowa State
#3: Wisconsin, Virginia, Syracuse, Louisville
#4: Creighton, Michigan State, Cincinnati, UCLA
#5: Oklahoma, San Diego State, Connecticut, Ohio State
#6: VCU, North Carolina, New Mexico, Texas
#7: Kentucky, Baylor, Saint Louis, Massachusetts
#8: Memphis, Oregon, Oklahoma State, George Washington
#9: Kansas State, Colorado, Gonzaga, Pittsburgh
#10: Iowa, Stanford, Arizona State, Providence
#11: St. Joseph's, Nebraska, Tennessee, Xavier*, Dayton*
#12:  Southern Methodist*, Minnesota*, Harvard, North Dakota State, Stephen F. Austin
#13: Delaware, Manhattan, Western Michigan, Tulsa
#14: New Mexico State, Mercer, Eastern Kentucky, Georgia State
#15: North Carolina Central, American, Milwaukee, Wofford
#16: Weber State, Coastal Carolina, Albany*, Mount St. Mary's*, Texas Southern*, Cal Poly*

* Denotes teams in first-round (play-in) games
Bold: Automatic bid

Additional thoughts after the jump

Seeding update, March 15 (9 pm EDT)

Seeding update, March 15 (9 pm EDT)

#1: Florida, Wichita St., Arizona, Michigan
#2: Villanova, Duke, Kansas, Wisconsin
#3: Iowa State, Virginia, Syracuse, Creighton
#4: Louisville, Michigan State, Cincinnati, UCLA
#5: Oklahoma, San Diego State, Connecticut, Ohio State
#6: VCU, North Carolina, New Mexico, Texas
#7: Kentucky, Baylor, Saint Louis, Massachusetts
#8: Memphis, Oregon, Oklahoma State, George Washington
#9: Kansas State, Colorado, Gonzaga, Pittsburgh
#10: Iowa, Stanford, Arizona State, St. Joseph's
#11: Nebraska, Tennessee, Xavier, Dayton*, Southern Methodist*
#12: Providence*, Southern Miss*, Harvard, North Dakota State, Stephen F. Austin
#13: Delaware, Manhattan, Western Michigan, Tulsa
#14: New Mexico State, Mercer, Eastern Kentucky, Georgia State
#15: North Carolina Central, American, Milwaukee, Wofford
#16: Weber State, Coastal Carolina, Albany*, Mount St. Mary's*, Texas Southern*, Cal State Northridge*

Seeding update, March 15 (4 pm EDT)

Seeding update, March 15 (4 pm EDT)

#1: Florida, Arizona, Wichita St., Michigan
#2: Wisconsin, Villanova, Duke, Kansas
#3: Virginia, Iowa State, Creighton, Syracuse
#4: Louisville, San Diego State, Cincinnati, Connecticut
#5: Michigan State, Oklahoma, Ohio State, UCLA
#6: Texas, North Carolina, VCU, Baylor
#7: New Mexico, Saint Louis, Kentucky, Massachusetts
#8: Memphis, George Washington, Oregon, Oklahoma State
#9: Kansas State, Colorado, Gonzaga, Pittsburgh
#10: Iowa, Stanford, Arizona State, St. Joseph's
#11: Nebraska, Tennessee, Xavier, Dayton*, Southern Methodist*
#12: Providence*, Southern Miss*, Harvard, Toledo, North Dakota State
#13: Stephen F. Austin, Delaware, Manhattan, Tulsa
#14: New Mexico State, Mercer, Eastern Kentucky, Georgia State
#15: North Carolina Central, American, Milwaukee, Wofford
#16: Weber State, Coastal Carolina, Albany*, Mount St. Mary's*, Texas Southern*, Cal State Northridge*

* Denotes teams in first-round (play-in) games
Bold: Automatic bid

Additional thoughts after the jump

Seed bands for March 15

Seed bands for March 15

#1: Florida, Arizona, Wichita St., Michigan
#2: Wisconsin, Villanova, Duke, Kansas
#3: Iowa State, Virginia, Creighton, Syracuse
#4: Louisville, San Diego State, Cincinnati, Connecticut
#5: Michigan State, Ohio State, Oklahoma, UCLA
#6: Texas, North Carolina, VCU, Baylor
#7: New Mexico, Saint Louis, Kentucky, Massachusetts
#8: Memphis, George Washington, Oregon, Oklahoma State
#9: Kansas State, Colorado, Pittsburgh, Gonzaga
#10: Iowa, Stanford, Arizona State, St. Joseph's
#11: Nebraska, Tennessee, Xavier, Dayton*, Southern Methodist*
#12: Providence*, Southern Miss*, Harvard, Toledo, Louisiana Tech
#13: North Dakota State, Stephen F. Austin, Delaware, Manhattan
#14: New Mexico State, Mercer, Eastern Kentucky, Georgia State
#15: North Carolina Central, American, Stony Brook, Milwaukee
#16: Wofford, Weber State, Coastal Carolina*, Mount St. Mary's*, Texas Southern*, Cal State Northridge*


* Denotes teams in first-round (play-in) games
Bold: Automatic bid

Results from early Thursday games

The obvious big results are Villanova losing to Seton Hall and SMU losing to Houston.  Both are pretty bad losses, and both are going to drop the losers by a seed line or so.  The #1 seed in the East is now being contested by Villanova, Michigan, and Kansas in my estimation, and with Joel Embiid's injury, combined with Kansas' 8 losses, the last #1 seed should belong to Michigan if they win out.  Villanova should be a #2 seed at best now, as they only really have one signature win (over Kansas); they only have 4 other top 50 RPI wins, and those are all against teams in the 40s (Iowa, St. Joe's, and Xavier twice).  Of course, their other three losses are all to top 10 teams, but you can also say that they are 1-3 against the top 40 with a bad loss.  Should Wisconsin beat Michigan in the B1G tournament finals, which end just before the selection show, I could see the committee setting up a situation where the winner gets the last #1 seed and the loser gets the #2 seed in the midwest.

As for SMU, they will almost certainly be in the field, but this drops them perilously close to the play-in games.  Of course, most of those teams are going to be losing in the next couple of days, but this solidifies the Mustangs as a 10/11 seed.

Seed bands for March 13

Seed bands for March 13

#1: Florida, Arizona, Wichita St., Villanova
#2: Kansas, Syracuse, Michigan, Wisconsin
#3: Duke, Iowa State, Virginia, Creighton
#4: Cincinnati, Louisville, San Diego State, Michigan State
#5: Oklahoma, Saint Louis, Texas, North Carolina
#6: Massachusetts, Connecticut, VCU, Ohio State
#7: UCLA, New Mexico, Kentucky, Oregon
#8: Baylor, Kansas State, Iowa, Memphis
#9: Oklahoma State, George Washington, Gonzaga, Arizona State
#10: Southern Methodist, Colorado, Stanford, Nebraska
#11: Dayton, Xavier, Pittsburgh, Arkansas*, St. Joseph's*
#12: Tennessee*, Brigham Young*, Harvard, Southern Mississippi, Toledo
#13: North Dakota State, Stephen F. Austin, Delaware, Manhattan
#14: Mercer, Eastern Kentucky, Georgia State, UC Irvine
#15: North Carolina Central, American, Utah Valley, Milwaukee
#16:  Stony Brook, Wofford, Weber State, Coastal Carolina, Mount St. Mary's*, Alabama State*

* Denotes teams in first-round (play-in) games
Bold: Automatic bid

Notes:
Not much change in the last couple of days, apart from changing the autobid winners at the bottom.  I still think BYU is right on the bubble with their 4 bad losses, and they will be sweating out the other conference tournaments, hoping that teams like Minnesota, Providence or St. John's don't make deep runs.  I have seen other bracketologists give BYU a better seed, but I just can't get past those four bad losses.  They are only 3-7 against the RPI top 50, and their win against Texas is the only thing to conterbalance the bad losses.  I almost put California ahead of them, and either Providence or St. John's is going to get a decent win today, so it's going to be a long wait until Selection Sunday for the Cougars.

Full bracket for March 11

Here is Tuesday's full bracket update.  In the Final Four, the West would be matched against the Midwest, and the South against the East.  Florida is the #1 overall seed.

East (New York City)

Games played in Buffalo, Thurs/Sat.
1. Villanova
16. Wofford/Alabama State

8. Oregon
9. Southern Methodist

Games played in San Diego, Fri/Sun.
5. Oklahoma
12. Toledo

4. Michigan State
13. Stephen F. Austin

Games played in San Antonio, Fri/Sun.
6. Ohio State
11. Dayton

3. Iowa State
14. Boston U

Games played in Buffalo, Thurs/Sat
7. New Mexico
10. Colorado

2. Syracuse
15. Robert Morris

West (Anaheim)

Games played in San Diego, Fri/Sun.
1. Arizona
16. Utah Valley

8. Memphis
9. Oklahoma State

Games played in Spokane, Thurs/Sat.
5. Saint Louis
12. Southern Mississippi

4. San Diego State
13. North Dakota State

Games played in San Antonio, Fri/Sun.
6. Connecticut
11. Pittsburgh

3. Creighton
14. Mercer

Games played in Milwaukee, Thurs/Sat.
7. Baylor
10. Stanford

2. Wisconsin
15. UC Irvine

South (Memphis)

Games played in Orlando, Thurs/Sat.
1. Florida
16. Wright St.

8. Iowa
9. George Washington

Games played in Spokane, Thurs/Sat.
5. Texas
12. Harvard

4. Louisville
13. Manhattan

Games played in Raleigh, Fri/Sun.
6. Virginia Commonwealth
11. Arkansas/Saint Joseph's

3. Duke
14. Georgia State

Games played in Milwaukee, Thurs/Sat.
7. UCLA
10. Gonzaga

2. Michigan
15. North Carolina Central

Midwest (Indianapolis)

Games played in St. Louis, Fri/Sun.
1. Wichita State
16. Weber State/Coastal Carolina

8. Kansas State
9. Arizona State

Games played in Orlando, Thurs/Sat
5. North Carolina
12. Tennessee/Brigham Young

4. Cincinnati
13. Delaware

Games played in Raleigh, Fri/Sun.
6. Massachusetts
11. Xavier

3. Virginia
14. Eastern Kentucky

Games played in St. Louis, Fri/Sun.
7. Kentucky
10. Nebraska

2. Kansas
15. Stony Brook

Bracketing notes:

• There was one seed bump.  There were 5 Big 12 teams in the top halves of regions, so Baylor was swapped with Oregon.
• Many people have a theory that suggests that the committee looks for "stories" when pairing teams for the tournament.  I disagree; I think that you will automatically find stories when there are 52 games being played by the end of the first weekend.  In this bracket, you have:
•  Matchups between former conference foes: Massachusetts-Xavier, Connecticut-Pittsburgh, and Saint Louis-Southern Miss (though it has been about ten years since both were in Conference USA), and Villanova and Syracuse are in the East region as the 1-2 seeds.
• Historical battles: Michigan-Duke has a great history, and Michigan-Florida would be a rematch of last year's Elite 8 battle. A second round matchup between Kansas and Kentucky would be a rematch of the 2012 title game as well (though, is anyone left from Kentucky's 2012 team?).
• Intrastate battles: Wichita State, Kansas, and Kansas State are all in the Midwest, and Ohio State faces off against Dayton in the East.  Ohio State could also draw Xavier if this is seeded differently; personally, I'd love to see Dayton-Xavier in the First Four, with the winner somehow getting Cincinnati.  Maybe if Cincinnati loses early in their conference tournament and drops to a 5 seed...
• The Midwest feels loaded, and the East feels weak.  Maybe that's because I think Villanova is a weak #1 and many of the other seeds have been losing (Syracuse, Ohio State, Michigan State, etc).  That would be the region where I would expect a random low seed, like Oregon or New Mexico, to make a deep run.

Seed bands for March 11

Seed bands for March 11

#1: Florida, Arizona, Wichita St., Villanova
#2: Kansas, Syracuse, Michigan, Wisconsin
#3: Duke, Iowa State, Virginia, Creighton
#4: Cincinnati, Louisville, San Diego State, Michigan State
#5: Oklahoma, Saint Louis, Texas, North Carolina
#6: Massachusetts, Connecticut, VCU, Ohio State
#7: UCLA, New Mexico, Kentucky, Oregon
#8: Baylor, Kansas State, Iowa, Memphis
#9:  Oklahoma State, George Washington, Southern Methodist, Arizona State
#10: Colorado, Gonzaga, Stanford, Nebraska
#11:  Dayton, Xavier, Pittsburgh, Arkansas*, St. Joseph's*
#12:  Tennessee*, Brigham Young*,  Harvard, Southern Mississippi, Toledo
#13: North Dakota State, Stephen F. Austin, Delaware, Manhattan
#14:  Mercer, Eastern Kentucky,  Boston U, Georgia State
#15: UC Irvine, North Carolina Central, Robert Morris, Stony Brook
#16: Utah Valley, Wright State, Wofford*, Coastal Carolina*, Weber State*, Alabama State*

* Denotes teams in first-round (play-in) games

Bold: Automatic bid